Planning Fallacy

Matt at Signal vs. Noise:

“Studies show it doesn’t matter whether you ask people for their realistic best guess or a hoped-for best case scenario. Either way, they give you the best case scenario. It’s true on a big scale and it’s true on a small scale too.”

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This entry was posted on Wednesday, July 29th, 2009 at 1:57 pm. You can follow any comments to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. Both comments and pings are currently closed.

One comment

  1. Lea McCloud
    August 1, 2009 at 10:00 am

    I agree and enjoy reading all your notes about a world of things that I have little understanding of. Working in a small non-profit, I still struggle with doing things the old way, vs using good technology. . .but the trick is training the people to use any thing new. if you have the best tool in the world, but they don’t use it with efficiency, you are still nearly in the dark ages, since we won’t get the outcome (info) we need by using the tool.
    so. . .it seems to me, that finding the right fit of person who knows how to use the tool (software). .and understands what is needed as outcome (reports/info) is really a bigger problem than choosing the right software (tool). .

    I can still use a shovel, but my back gets sore; I can’t use a forklift because no one has taught me, and I can’t afford to rent/buy one or get it to the remote camp site where I wish to develop a new facility. . .that is an example of the kinds of things that I think about.. .same applies for the work I do to raise money for non-profits working in developing countries. If we gave them cell phones or computers, but they don’t have coverage or electricity, they are better off receiving a bicycle which multiplies their efficiency x 4 over walking.

    I’d love to have a dialogue with you on this. :) Lea McCloud
    If you recall, you found me initially through my blog: 2makeUthink. .
    recently I was in NW British Columbia for vacation, and saw the need for the First Nations kids to better understand their heritage by re-connecting to nature that has fed their people for centuries (salmon). Those whose lives revolve around ipods and texting on cell phones (where there is service) become addicted to that and also drugs & alcohol.. .they are bored. what is the IT industry doing to help recognize and solve this addiction?. .
    Will our generation have to pass laws about use of technology so that parents can monitor or limit their children’s activities. the parents are often the role models in their work environment, using technology and ignoring the importance of sustainable, personal relationship building. .
    This may, indeed, be the next unaddressed illness of technology’s legacy.
    LM